Monday, November 27, 2006

Give it three days

I'm forever trying to better understand human nature. It's the mechanism that most effects the information we receive so I like to try different ways to study that process. Sometimes it helps to find something analogous, long established and a little closer to science. Then move some parts around, make some substitutions and see what you get. I chose Economics for this example.
Maybe human beings operate like the business cycle. Boom to bust or bust to boom. Starting with a dearth of ideas, they're motivated into creating some. For a while there are good ones and just about enough to go around and all is well. But demand rises and the good ideas can't meet the demand. Many more people enter the market to try and supply them. Most of the new and even some proven suppliers end up dropping the quality and charging more. Slowly people don't see the value anymore and leave the market. Inventories build, prices slump and we start all over again.
OK, not the perfect analogy but, we sure seem to be in a hastily conceived, low quality information phase. It roles effortlessly off reporters tongues, off the pages of the newspaper or the Internet. It's clearly a commodity that gets dreamed up to fill air time or copy and is designed to liberate dollars from advertisers pockets and not much more. It drives a whole industry of short term opportunists who complicate matters so, were fooled into believing in their value and that there is a point or purpose to it all.
Mind you, I have nothing against them. There are many fields that have accomplished the same thing. Making people believe they need something you make has always been an important part of the growth in the economy. But as always, information should be met with healthy skepticism. It should be seen for what it is.
The following example is an oversimplification but this reminds me of a lot of the stories of today.
Remember last Christmas, the young woman who's boyfriend called the authorities to report that she had swallowed her cellphone and was having trouble breathing. When questioned she said "he wanted the phone and she wouldn't give it to him, so she attempted to swallow it." I remember thinking, now this is some genuinely odd behavior. 3 Days later a follow up story appeared . "A woman who police thought had deliberately tried to swallow her cellphone during an argument with her boyfriend was apparently the victim of an assault. It appears she didn't voluntarily swallow this phone." Now that made some sense.
Maybe a 3 day waiting period or rest before we even consider the news would be beneficial.

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