Arguably the most important bit of information I stumbled on this week was a May 7th operational update out of Bagdad from Maj. Gen Bergner. It seems that one more bit of evidence that Iran is supporting militants in Iraq is fading away. Any mention of Iraq appears to have been suspended and a plan to show journalist some Iranian supplied explosives last week was canceled after realizing none of them were from Iran.
Just to be clear I'm not somebody who frequents the Multi National Force web site. The fact that I want to make that clear probably helps to explain why this kind of information is all but forgotten most of the time.
This stuff is as dry as it gets and most people it seems are tired of hearing it. In fact if it was not for a blog from Tina Susman, who works for the L.A. Times in Bagdad, no one in this country would likely of heard it. That scares me.
This administration has spent the last year trying to convince us that we may need to invade Iran in part because of their meddling in Iraq. Back in December the U.S Intelligence Estimate dampened the administrations claims that Iran has a nuclear weaponization program. So what will they come up with next. I can't believe this is my Government.
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
An old story about a new Iran
In the winter of 1978/79 I was in my twenties and an offer came my way to move a friend of a friend back to Los Angeles from New York city. I accepted as I did any offer in those days that got me anywhere. All expenses paid plus a few bucks-all we had to do was fly there, pack up his belongings and drive a truck back. It was the dead of winter but it sounded like great fun.
The fellow we moved was a successful magazine publisher who was closing his office in New York. It turned out for me to be a peek at how the "other half " lived. His office was maybe 20 stories up in a huge building in Manhattan. Moving some of the things in his office was part of the deal and I remember thinking, what did I get myself into? As it turned out it wasn't a problem. We just pulled the whole damn truck into the "truck elevator," took it right up to his floor and packed up. At the time I didn't know such things existed.
That memory lasted along with being surprised at how nice and friendly everyone was. I'd been warned about New Yorkers so many times I expected they all had horns. It couldn't have been further from the truth. There was one guy on the street we asked for directions, he patiently did his best, then opted to ride on the running board of the truck for what must have been 3 miles to get us to the highway. It was about 30 degrees outside. I'd never heard of that happening in Los Angeles even on a warm day.
It was my first experience in New York city and it had a feel to it that was very different than any other city I'd been to. There were little things I recall like pulling out of the truck elevator onto a street with traffic so tight I thought we would never get out. For me, the Californian, it was hectic and I was out of my element and getting nowhere fast. We had befriended a few of the girls in the office who came along with us. They kept telling me to just move into the lane which I finally did nervously until I put a crease right down the side of a car with the trucks bumper. I thought now I'd really done it, but one of the girls, Holly was here name said, "Go, the next guy will take you a little more seriously now." Well, the guy I hit never even stopped and we laughed and I soaked it all up like a sponge.
We stayed in the apartment of the guy we were moving which was on Beekman Place in a nice part of the city overlooking the East River. His place was wild, it had polished metal ceiling panels with slabs of glass sticking out of the walls for shelves that were backlit making the edges aqua blue.
We would pack up stuff during the day and go to night clubs at night. The place was Disneyland for adults. Everything was new and different. There was more than we could ever see and I finally got to find out what food was supposed to taste like. It was heaven but, sorry, this is going to have to wait for another post. I have a little more serious thought in mind.
The reason I bring this story up in the first place is 2 doors down from the apartment was a townhouse that was obviously of some importance to someone because there was always 2 New York city police officers standing nearby watching. There was also a large security camera above the door. Being young wise guys we would ham it up when we passed by. We would joke about who might live there as we came and went at all hours of the day and night. After about 3 days of this the officers had had enough and approached us and inquired about what we were doing. We explained and got to talking about California and the weather which they loved to hear about. We got pretty friendly and I guess they passed the word on to the next shift because nobody ever bothered us again.
One night we came in late and I remember asking the officers who they were guarding, they said "The Shah of Iran's wife." It sounded important but it didn't mean much to us at the time. We talked a little bit and said goodnight but I'll never forget as we walked away one of them said, "if you guys are gonna blow the place up, let us know first so we can get the hell outta here," we all laughed. I remember thinking New York cops are a lot cooler than L.A. cops.
I barely knew who the Shah of Iran was then but that little kernel of an experience created an interest. As I later found out this was right at the time he was thrown out of Iran. They left as a result of a revolution and I remember thinking that definitely seemed cool.
So fast forward to now and guess who's in the news. A little history and perspective seems in order. 27 years ago Iran has a revolution that succeeded in ousting their western backed leader. I don't know about you but I clearly remember Watergate. A little earlier perhaps but the only recent mildly comparable turbulent time for Americans. I also remember the effect it had on this country.
Now imagine a Nixon Monarchy including his father before him ruling America since WWI. Around WWII the father is removed and the son is installed by outsiders so they can help themselves to your natural resources, pay an unfair price and attempt to change the culture in the process. There are steady reminders along the way who the real boss is. There is political trickery, unfair programs, corruption, violent coups and no real democratic representation. Your autocratic leader slowly becomes known as a puppet for outside interests. Having no more of it you rise up and revolt. Then starting your country over and weakened from revolution your attacked by your outsider backed neighbor and suffer casualties of up to 1 million of which 100,000 are killed by chemical weapons.
The fact that this was an Islamic Revolution should have been a strong message to the world how sick and tired Iran was of the interventions in it's affairs and that western ways were not a good fit. A little generalization could have convinced smart people that it wasn't a good fit for much of the region but that's another topic.
I'm not going any deeper into the history of Iran and to say they haven't contributed to their own problems would be wrong but, if your not inclined to study the subject, know that the west, without question, played a huge role in the affairs of Iran and being fair had little to do with that involvement. You have heard it before and it's true, it was primarily about oil.
Unfortunately the actions against Iran in pursuit of this goal has hardened Iranians dislike for Americans to the extent that dealing with them today is nearly impossible. Add clever politicians exploiting these hatreds and fears and you have modern day Iran.
The sad thing is the damage is done and in light of possible new discoveries about Iran's uranium enrichment efforts there will at some point likely be a response from the west. My only hope is that whoever ultimately negotiates with the Iranians will be fair minded and able to know and embrace their troubled history.
The fellow we moved was a successful magazine publisher who was closing his office in New York. It turned out for me to be a peek at how the "other half " lived. His office was maybe 20 stories up in a huge building in Manhattan. Moving some of the things in his office was part of the deal and I remember thinking, what did I get myself into? As it turned out it wasn't a problem. We just pulled the whole damn truck into the "truck elevator," took it right up to his floor and packed up. At the time I didn't know such things existed.
That memory lasted along with being surprised at how nice and friendly everyone was. I'd been warned about New Yorkers so many times I expected they all had horns. It couldn't have been further from the truth. There was one guy on the street we asked for directions, he patiently did his best, then opted to ride on the running board of the truck for what must have been 3 miles to get us to the highway. It was about 30 degrees outside. I'd never heard of that happening in Los Angeles even on a warm day.
It was my first experience in New York city and it had a feel to it that was very different than any other city I'd been to. There were little things I recall like pulling out of the truck elevator onto a street with traffic so tight I thought we would never get out. For me, the Californian, it was hectic and I was out of my element and getting nowhere fast. We had befriended a few of the girls in the office who came along with us. They kept telling me to just move into the lane which I finally did nervously until I put a crease right down the side of a car with the trucks bumper. I thought now I'd really done it, but one of the girls, Holly was here name said, "Go, the next guy will take you a little more seriously now." Well, the guy I hit never even stopped and we laughed and I soaked it all up like a sponge.
We stayed in the apartment of the guy we were moving which was on Beekman Place in a nice part of the city overlooking the East River. His place was wild, it had polished metal ceiling panels with slabs of glass sticking out of the walls for shelves that were backlit making the edges aqua blue.
We would pack up stuff during the day and go to night clubs at night. The place was Disneyland for adults. Everything was new and different. There was more than we could ever see and I finally got to find out what food was supposed to taste like. It was heaven but, sorry, this is going to have to wait for another post. I have a little more serious thought in mind.
The reason I bring this story up in the first place is 2 doors down from the apartment was a townhouse that was obviously of some importance to someone because there was always 2 New York city police officers standing nearby watching. There was also a large security camera above the door. Being young wise guys we would ham it up when we passed by. We would joke about who might live there as we came and went at all hours of the day and night. After about 3 days of this the officers had had enough and approached us and inquired about what we were doing. We explained and got to talking about California and the weather which they loved to hear about. We got pretty friendly and I guess they passed the word on to the next shift because nobody ever bothered us again.
One night we came in late and I remember asking the officers who they were guarding, they said "The Shah of Iran's wife." It sounded important but it didn't mean much to us at the time. We talked a little bit and said goodnight but I'll never forget as we walked away one of them said, "if you guys are gonna blow the place up, let us know first so we can get the hell outta here," we all laughed. I remember thinking New York cops are a lot cooler than L.A. cops.
I barely knew who the Shah of Iran was then but that little kernel of an experience created an interest. As I later found out this was right at the time he was thrown out of Iran. They left as a result of a revolution and I remember thinking that definitely seemed cool.
So fast forward to now and guess who's in the news. A little history and perspective seems in order. 27 years ago Iran has a revolution that succeeded in ousting their western backed leader. I don't know about you but I clearly remember Watergate. A little earlier perhaps but the only recent mildly comparable turbulent time for Americans. I also remember the effect it had on this country.
Now imagine a Nixon Monarchy including his father before him ruling America since WWI. Around WWII the father is removed and the son is installed by outsiders so they can help themselves to your natural resources, pay an unfair price and attempt to change the culture in the process. There are steady reminders along the way who the real boss is. There is political trickery, unfair programs, corruption, violent coups and no real democratic representation. Your autocratic leader slowly becomes known as a puppet for outside interests. Having no more of it you rise up and revolt. Then starting your country over and weakened from revolution your attacked by your outsider backed neighbor and suffer casualties of up to 1 million of which 100,000 are killed by chemical weapons.
The fact that this was an Islamic Revolution should have been a strong message to the world how sick and tired Iran was of the interventions in it's affairs and that western ways were not a good fit. A little generalization could have convinced smart people that it wasn't a good fit for much of the region but that's another topic.
I'm not going any deeper into the history of Iran and to say they haven't contributed to their own problems would be wrong but, if your not inclined to study the subject, know that the west, without question, played a huge role in the affairs of Iran and being fair had little to do with that involvement. You have heard it before and it's true, it was primarily about oil.
Unfortunately the actions against Iran in pursuit of this goal has hardened Iranians dislike for Americans to the extent that dealing with them today is nearly impossible. Add clever politicians exploiting these hatreds and fears and you have modern day Iran.
The sad thing is the damage is done and in light of possible new discoveries about Iran's uranium enrichment efforts there will at some point likely be a response from the west. My only hope is that whoever ultimately negotiates with the Iranians will be fair minded and able to know and embrace their troubled history.
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
Sizing up 2006
As I begin yet another year I can't seem to shake that tugging feeling to size up the year passed. Though not in the memory jogging, January to December tick-off of events kind of way. I find more interesting anything that seems to drive the behavior which the expression of, will be immortalized for 2006.
I think that the balance between the haves and the have-nots may ultimately decide the fate of the planet so it is naturally worth some attention each and every year.
Political systems that harnessed the power of the natural desire to improve ones own lot in life seemed to have had plenty of success.
The places with less of this struggled along with those with few resources and limited experience exploiting the resources they did have. Societies in these stages tend to "cut the tall flowers," so to speak, so the overall restraints to improvement are large.
In the U.S. where the gap has become a valley between the haves and have-nots, the poor don't starve and the society for the most part encourages success but, the shift toward the haves knowledge based economy creates a formidable barrier for entry for the have-nots.
The haves on the other hand seem to remain confounded as to why the have-nots don't simply recognize that the haves inched their way up and they can to. What the haves will never concede is that an ever increasing number of them never were have-nots in the first place. Strangely the ones that skipped the penniless origins, often tend to offer the most advice to the penniless on the subject.
All the while 40 million people have no health insurance and one trillion was spent on health care last year of which 500 billion was spent on the last 10 days of life. I'm no mathematician but for congress to carry on about where to start the negotiating for a minimum wage increase for less than two per cent of the population doesn't leave me all that hopeful
You know my feelings about Iraq. It was a mistake in a variety of ways but the ancillary issue of 2006 is Iran. We had to euphemistically describe what we thought Saddam Hussein had as "weapons of mass destruction," to invade Iraq. We won't have to do that in Iran. We'll know exactly what they have and if it's not good we likely won't be able to do anything about it because we are spent, both politically and financially. If the economy stays robust, the war in Iraq turned around and we made some progress repairing our image around the world it will be two years before we could do anything about Iran. On the positive side it may be a good thing because it will force this administration to work diplomatically for two years and then they'll all be gone.
Which brings me to my last issue for this post. Why does the U.S. Dollar continue to hit lows against all major currencies? This is another conundrum whose birthday was in 2006. Far be it from me to try to call the reason for currency fluctuations but given what appears to be guesswork by the economists I read, I'll share my opinion.
I've seen many periods over the years when the dollar remained strong when it shouldn't have, and had it explained that due to the perceived on balance strength of the U.S relative to the rest of the world, with risk being part of every investment equation, people simply preferred to hold U.S. dollars. Why would I not now believe that the opposite is the case.
I think that the balance between the haves and the have-nots may ultimately decide the fate of the planet so it is naturally worth some attention each and every year.
Political systems that harnessed the power of the natural desire to improve ones own lot in life seemed to have had plenty of success.
The places with less of this struggled along with those with few resources and limited experience exploiting the resources they did have. Societies in these stages tend to "cut the tall flowers," so to speak, so the overall restraints to improvement are large.
In the U.S. where the gap has become a valley between the haves and have-nots, the poor don't starve and the society for the most part encourages success but, the shift toward the haves knowledge based economy creates a formidable barrier for entry for the have-nots.
The haves on the other hand seem to remain confounded as to why the have-nots don't simply recognize that the haves inched their way up and they can to. What the haves will never concede is that an ever increasing number of them never were have-nots in the first place. Strangely the ones that skipped the penniless origins, often tend to offer the most advice to the penniless on the subject.
All the while 40 million people have no health insurance and one trillion was spent on health care last year of which 500 billion was spent on the last 10 days of life. I'm no mathematician but for congress to carry on about where to start the negotiating for a minimum wage increase for less than two per cent of the population doesn't leave me all that hopeful
You know my feelings about Iraq. It was a mistake in a variety of ways but the ancillary issue of 2006 is Iran. We had to euphemistically describe what we thought Saddam Hussein had as "weapons of mass destruction," to invade Iraq. We won't have to do that in Iran. We'll know exactly what they have and if it's not good we likely won't be able to do anything about it because we are spent, both politically and financially. If the economy stays robust, the war in Iraq turned around and we made some progress repairing our image around the world it will be two years before we could do anything about Iran. On the positive side it may be a good thing because it will force this administration to work diplomatically for two years and then they'll all be gone.
Which brings me to my last issue for this post. Why does the U.S. Dollar continue to hit lows against all major currencies? This is another conundrum whose birthday was in 2006. Far be it from me to try to call the reason for currency fluctuations but given what appears to be guesswork by the economists I read, I'll share my opinion.
I've seen many periods over the years when the dollar remained strong when it shouldn't have, and had it explained that due to the perceived on balance strength of the U.S relative to the rest of the world, with risk being part of every investment equation, people simply preferred to hold U.S. dollars. Why would I not now believe that the opposite is the case.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)